Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.053099 0.060556 0.068920 0.079043 0.091022 0.104816 0.122009
2025-12-07 0.042716 0.052088 0.063501 0.078579 0.098212 0.123240 0.158096
2025-12-14 0.034310 0.044230 0.057174 0.075626 0.101793 0.138425 0.195162
2025-12-21 0.026765 0.036122 0.049058 0.068737 0.098817 0.144647 0.223059
2025-12-28 0.022802 0.032197 0.045955 0.068318 0.105290 0.166990 0.284943
2026-01-04 0.020013 0.029493 0.044161 0.069602 0.115102 0.198528 0.378197
2026-01-11 0.017501 0.026798 0.041916 0.069758 0.123400 0.231217 0.493290
2026-01-18 0.015412 0.024440 0.039813 0.069769 0.131784 0.268335 0.644537
2026-01-25 0.013398 0.021892 0.036942 0.067763 0.135821 0.298860 0.805569
2026-02-01 0.011562 0.019382 0.033718 0.064379 0.136088 0.321624 0.968151
2026-02-08 0.010415 0.017943 0.032261 0.064370 0.144437 0.370678 1.274304
2026-02-15 0.009457 0.016715 0.031010 0.064560 0.153639 0.428725 1.697527
2026-02-22 0.008691 0.015774 0.030237 0.065859 0.167073 0.512081 2.395288
2026-03-01 0.007988 0.014856 0.029362 0.066749 0.180158 0.606652 3.385839
2026-03-08 0.007213 0.013683 0.027733 0.065342 0.185927 0.680041 4.471408
2026-03-15 0.006308 0.012126 0.024993 0.060325 0.177974 0.689811 5.114908
2026-03-22 0.005842 0.011452 0.024206 0.060604 0.189063 0.803241 7.273823
2026-03-29 0.005502 0.011010 0.023905 0.062258 0.206515 0.973811 11.241624
2026-04-05 0.005142 0.010479 0.023296 0.062849 0.220475 1.147093 16.939586
2026-04-12 0.004811 0.009971 0.022666 0.063238 0.234223 1.344878 25.909125
2026-04-19 0.004438 0.009318 0.021555 0.061760 0.238991 1.489290 36.370360
2026-04-26 0.004053 0.008596 0.020157 0.058971 0.236258 1.573371 47.154729
2026-05-03 0.003818 0.008213 0.019631 0.059161 0.249205 1.831374 76.088970